Kenya’s ambitious NDC shows climate leadership, but faces serious risks
Kenya’s climate leadership should be lauded - but supporting that ambition requires transparent public dialogue and new incentives.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, member countries are required to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every 5 years. The deadline for the most recent NDC submission was in February 2025. Unfortunately, only 21 countries successfully submitted their NDCs by this deadline.
One of these 21 countries is Kenya. Now that its NDC has been published, it has become clear that Kenya has chosen to show real leadership in their NDC plans. At a time when global momentum on addressing climate change appears to be on the back foot, Kenya has stepped up to take up some of the slack.
Kenya’s Ambitions
Kenya’s previous NDCs were bold, but the latest goes even further. The country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% relative to business-as-usual levels by 2035. A central focus is the energy sector, with ambitious reforms aimed at achieving 100% renewable electricity by 2035. This transition is expected to drive further emissions cuts in related areas like clean cooking and green technology. The plan adopts a 'whole-of-government' and 'whole-of-society' approach, aiming for cross-sectoral coordination and inclusive engagement.
Potential risks and challenges
Despite this bold vision, there are potential issues that must be addressed if Kenya’s NDC is to be successful. Willis Ochieng of The Center for Rural Empowerment and Agricultural Transformation for Sustainability (Creats International) said “While setting high targets is commendable, achieving them requires matching ambition with grounded strategies, sufficient resourcing, and inclusive implementation”. He believes that “The current NDCs risk being overly aspirational, without a clear reckoning of past performance and systematic constraints”.
Indeed, previous NDC’s have not been met, despite their ambition. The Kenyan Government is also relying on up to 80% of the funding for the NDC coming from external sources. In the new global funding environment, this could be a major risk that majorly undermines Kenya’s ability to meet these targets.
Willis also points out that certain barriers, such as taxes on green technology like solar panels could stifle adoption, making it harder to meet the 100% renewable energy goals laid out in the NDC.
“ We believe Kenya’s climate leadership would be far stronger if the transition were designed to be truly equitable with direct support for smallholder farmers, transparent public dialogue and localized incentives for regenerative practices.”
Brian Mwaniki of Agritech Empowerment Network Kenya (AEN- KENYA) also expresses concern about how these commitments are being shaped and communicated - particularly with the proposed introduction of a carbon tax as part of the energy sector reforms.
“While the intent behind the carbon tax may align with global climate goals the structure and implementation path raise serious equity concerns,” he says. “For smallholder farmers and rural communities who are already grappling with the impacts of climate change this policy risks compounding existing vulnerabilities. Many of these communities rely on carbon-intensive inputs. Penalizing them without offering accessible, sustainable alternatives or financial buffers is not only unfair but potentially harmful to livelihoods.”
Moreover public awareness of the new policy remains limited and there has been little to no consultation at the community level. Climate action must be inclusive and just policies crafted in high-level circles without meaningful grassroots engagement can exacerbate inequality and erode trust in climate governance.
As Brian notes, “we believe Kenya’s climate leadership would be far stronger if the transition were designed to be truly equitable with direct support for smallholder farmers, transparent public dialogue and localized incentives for regenerative practices.”
Conclusions
Ultimately, how Kenya addresses these risks will determine the success of its NDC plan. The leadership the country has shown, both in its ambitions, and the speed in completing its NDC, is worthy of recognition. However, without steps to address the risks brought by a lack of funding,existing barriers that could disincentivise change, and equity risks of some of the proposed policies, there is a danger that these goals might not be met, and the potential squandered.
- Alasdair Brown, IIED
Sources
Kenya| Kenya| Kenya | Compare climate targets | Climate Watch
Kenya’s climate commitment sets standard before COP30 | Devex
Kenya Updates NDC, Requires $45bn to Meet Emissions Targets - African Climate Wire
Kenya’s Climate Commitment: A Look at the Second Nationally Determined Contribution | Vellum Kenya
